Coalescent Theory

The coalescent process is a powerful modeling tool for population genetics. The allelic states of all homologous gene copies in a population are determined by the genealogical and mutational history of these copies. The coalescent approach is based on the realization that the genealogy is usually easier to model backward in time, and that selectively neutral mutations can then be superimposed afterwards. A wide range of biological phenomena can be modeled using this approach. Whereas almost all of classical population genetics considers the future of a population given a starting point, the coalescent considers the present, while taking the past into account. This allows the calculation of probabilities of sample configurations under the stationary distribution of various population genetic models, and makes full likelihood analysis of polymorphism data possible. It also leads to extremely efficient computer algorithms for generating simulated data from such distributions, data which can then be compared with observations as a form of exploratory